Estimating Policy‐Corrected Long‐Term and Short‐Term Tax Elasticities for the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom

B. Hayo, Sascha Mierzwa, Umut Ünal
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

We estimate the elasticities of the most important tax categories using a new quarterly database of discretionary tax measures for the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom over the period 1980Q1 to 2018Q2. Employing Romer and Romer’s (2009) narrative approach, we construct a policy-neutral dataset based on revenue figures from governmental records. Using this quantitative information, we are able to subtract policy-induced changes, which are typically not considered in the extant literature. Furthermore, we estimate state-dependent elasticities. Our conclusions are as follows. (i) In Germany and the UK, long-term tax-to-base elasticities are generally higher than short-term elasticities, whereas results for the US are mixed. (ii) Short-term elasticities for base-to-output elasticities tend to be smaller than unity, whereas long-term elasticities are close to unity. (iii) German and UK tax-to-output elasticities in the short term are lower than long-term elasticities, with mixed results for the US. (iv) For tax-to-base elasticities, we find business cycle asymmetries across countries but not within countries. (v) For base-to-output elasticities, our results suggest few asymmetries across countries and more asymmetries across tax types. (vi) Typically, the above conclusions do not hold for corporate income tax.
估算美国、德国和英国的政策修正长期和短期税收弹性
我们使用美国、德国和英国1980年第一季度至2018年第二季度的可自由支配税收措施的新季度数据库来估计最重要税收类别的弹性。采用Romer和Romer(2009)的叙事方法,我们基于政府记录的收入数据构建了一个政策中立的数据集。使用这些定量信息,我们能够减去政策引起的变化,这在现有文献中通常没有考虑到。此外,我们估计状态相关的弹性。我们的结论如下。(i)在德国和英国,长期税基弹性通常高于短期弹性,而美国的结果则好坏参半。(ii)基数-产出弹性的短期弹性往往小于统一,而长期弹性则接近统一。(iii)德国和英国短期税收对产出的弹性低于长期弹性,美国的结果好坏参半。(iv)对于税基弹性,我们发现各国之间存在商业周期不对称,但各国内部不存在。(v)对于基本产出弹性,我们的结果表明,不同国家之间的不对称很少,而不同税收类型之间的不对称更多。(vi)通常,上述结论不适用于公司所得税。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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