Understanding Low Wage Growth in the Euro Area and European Countries

C. Nickel, Elena Bobeica, G. Koester, E. Lis, M. Porqueddu
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引用次数: 26

Abstract

Despite notable improvements in the labour market since 2013, wage growth in the euro area was subdued and substantially overpredicted in 2013-17. This paper summarises the findings of an ESCB expert group on the reasons for low wage growth and provides comparable analyses on wage developments in the euro area as a whole and in individual EU countries. The paper finds that cyclical drivers, as captured by a standard Phillips curve, seem to explain much of the weakness in wage growth during this period, but not all of it. Going beyond the drivers included in standard Phillips curves, other factors are also found to have played a role, such as compositional effects, the possible non-linear reaction of wage growth to cyclical improvements, and structural and institutional factors. In order to increase the robustness of wage forecasts, the paper also proposes ready-to-use tools for cross-checking euro area wage growth forecasts based on wage Phillips curves. These are derived based on a comprehensive real-time forecast evaluation exercise JEL Classification: J30, E24, E31, E32
了解欧元区和欧洲国家的低工资增长
尽管自2013年以来劳动力市场出现了显著改善,但2013-17年欧元区的工资增长受到抑制,而且被严重高估。本文总结了ESCB专家组关于低工资增长原因的研究结果,并提供了对欧元区整体和个别欧盟国家工资发展的可比分析。论文发现,正如标准菲利普斯曲线所描述的那样,周期性驱动因素似乎可以解释这一时期工资增长的大部分疲软,但不是全部。除了标准菲利普斯曲线中包含的驱动因素之外,其他因素也发挥了作用,例如构成效应,工资增长对周期性改善可能的非线性反应,以及结构和制度因素。为了提高工资预测的稳健性,本文还提出了基于工资菲利普斯曲线的欧元区工资增长预测交叉检验的现成工具。JEL分类:J30, E24, E31, E32
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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