Predicting the Ecological Footprint: A Case Study for Italy, Pakistan and China

Abstract

This paper introduces a new prediction model of the ecological footprint from energy parameters based on time series vector autoregression. The experiment employs global yearly observations of the variables in the period 1971–2014 for three countries: (i) Italy, (ii) Pakistan, and (iii) China. A prediction is performed for each variable adopted in the model from 2015 to 2024. The obtained results indicate that the total ecological footprint of consumption will increase for China and Pakistan, and decrease for Italy.