From movement purpose to perceptive spatial mobility prediction

Abstract

A major limiting factor for prediction algorithms is the forecast of new or never before-visited locations. Conventional personal models utterly relying on personal location data perform poorly when it comes to discoveries of new regions. The reason is explained by the prediction relying only on previously visited/seen (or known) locations. As a side effect, locations that were never visited before (or explorations) by a user cause disturbance to known location's prediction. Besides, such explorations cannot be accurately predicted. We claim the tackling of such limitation first requires identifying the purpose of the next probable movement. In this context, we propose a novel framework for adjusting prediction resolution when probable explorations are going to happen. As recently demonstrated [3, 15], there exist regularities in returning and exploring visits. Moreover, the geographical occurrences of explorations are far from being random in a coarser-grained spatial resolution. Exploiting these properties, instead of directly predicting a user's next location, we design a two-step predictive framework. First, we infer an individual's next type of transition: (i) a return, i.e., a visit to a previously known location, or (ii) an exploration, i.e., a discovery of a new place. Next, we predict the next location or the next coarse-grained zone depending on the inferred type of movement. We conduct extensive experiments on three real-world GPS mobility traces. The results demonstrate substantial improvements in the accuracy of prediction by dint of fruitfully forecasting coarse-grained zones used for exploration activities. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to propose a framework solely based on personal location data to tackle the prediction of visits to new places.