Climate Change an Emerging Risk: A Case Study of Sutlej River Basin, Pakistan

Abstract

Fresh water is of prime importance for life and plays key role in the water-food-energy nexus. The rapid increase in population is putting pressure on available water resources of the country. The management of these water resources for the future generations is needed. In this study Sutlej River flow has been simulated and analyzed at Islam Headwork’s. The Sutlej River originates from glaciers of western Himalayas in Tibet (China) and is considered as one among prime sources of fresh water supply for Pakistan. After Calibration (1980–1994) and validation (1995–2005), Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to simulate and analyze Sutlej River flow. Results highlighted that mean monthly discharge flow would seem to decrease in summers for the selected future time periods i.e. near (2011–2040), mid (2041–2070) and far (2071–2099) with reference to historical (1976–2005) flows. Whereas average monthly flow during winter and spring seasons were projected to increase relative to reference period flow especially for emission scenario 8.5. This Study can help water managers in describing the impacts changing climate on hydrology of Sutlej River Basin which is highly sensitive and exposed to climate change effects.