Projection of Living Arrangements of the Elderly in Japan Using INAHSIM

Abstract

By using a dynamic micro-simulation model named INAHSIM, we conducted a population-household projection inJapan for the period of 2015 to 2070. Due to rapid aging of the population, the distribution of the elderly (65 yearsold or older) by living arrangements has a profound impact on the social system. Especially, the choice of the elderlyamong a) living in one-person households, b) co-residing with child households, and c) living in institutions, arecrucial indicators for the future social burden of the elderly in Japan. In this paper, we projected the number andproportion of the elderly by living arrangement in future years. Trends of those elderly who have little relatives,therefore having high risk of dying in solitude, were also featured.