Econometric Measurement of Earth's Transient Climate Sensitivity

P. Phillips, T. Leirvik, T. Storelvmo
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引用次数: 4

Abstract

How sensitive is Earth’s climate to a given increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations? This long-standing and fundamental question in climate science was recently analyzed by dynamic panel data methods using extensive spatiotemporal data of global surface temperatures, solar radiation, and GHG concentrations over the last half century to 2010 (Storelvmo et al, 2016). These methods revealed that atmospheric aerosol effects masked approximately one-third of the continental warming due to increasing GHG concentrations over this period, thereby implying greater climate sensitivity to GHGs than previously thought. The present study provides asymptotic theory justifying the use of these methods when there are stochastic process trends in both the global forcing variables, such as GHGs, and station-level trend effects from such sources as local aerosol pollutants. These asymptotics validate con dence interval construction for econometric measures of Earth’s transient climate sensitivity. The methods are applied to observational data and to data generated from three leading global climate models (GCMs) that are sampled spatio-temporally in the same way as the empirical observations. The fi ndings indicate that estimates of transient climate sensitivity produced by these GCMs lie within empirically determined con dence limits but that the GCMs uniformly underestimate the effects of aerosol induced dimming. The analysis shows the potential of econometric methods to calibrate GCM performance against observational data and to reveal the respective sensitivity parameters (GHG and non-GHG related) governing GCM temperature trends.
地球瞬态气候敏感性的计量经济学测量
地球气候对大气中温室气体(GHG)浓度的增加有多敏感?最近,通过动态面板数据方法,利用截至2010年的过去半个世纪的全球地表温度、太阳辐射和温室气体浓度的广泛时空数据,对气候科学中这个长期存在的基本问题进行了分析(Storelvmo等,2016)。这些方法表明,大气气溶胶效应掩盖了这一时期由于温室气体浓度增加而导致的大约三分之一的大陆变暖,从而意味着气候对温室气体的敏感性比以前认为的要大。当全球强迫变量(如温室气体)和局地气溶胶污染物等源的站级趋势效应都存在随机过程趋势时,本研究提供了证明这些方法使用的渐近理论。这些渐近性验证了地球瞬态气候敏感性计量测量的置信区间构造。这些方法应用于观测数据和三个主要全球气候模式(GCMs)产生的数据,这些数据以与经验观测相同的方式进行时空采样。研究结果表明,这些gcm对瞬态气候敏感性的估计在经验确定的信度范围内,但gcm一致低估了气溶胶引起的变暗的影响。分析表明,计量经济学方法有潜力根据观测数据校准GCM的性能,并揭示控制GCM温度趋势的各自敏感性参数(温室气体和非温室气体相关)。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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