Explaining political surprises (aka making methodology fun): determinants of voting in Ukrainian presidential elections

Abstract

The majority of social science majors dislike statistics and research methods. Things can, and should be, different; (social) statistics and research methods can be interesting and fun. To do just that, I currently work on an applied methodology book project. Here I present a modified version of a draft chapter for the book, in which I answer the question why, in Ukraine, there was a strong negative correlation between the regional shares of the vote for Leonid Kuchma in two consecutive presidential elections. The modelling of political competition as two-dimensional (one socioeconomic, one ethno-linguistic) reveals the dominance of the latter dimension in Ukrainian politics. In addition to statistical and methodological lessons, the paper offers substantive lessons, relevant for the important role (positive or negative) that institutional design, policy-making and elite behavior can play in an ethnically divided emerging democracy.