Simulation of COVID-19 Dynamics using Ridge Regression

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected all areas of human activity around the world. Public health systems have shown their unpreparedness for a pandemic of this magnitude. An effective approach to managing the epidemic process is mathematical modeling. In this work, a predictive model of the dynamics of the spread of COVID-19 is built on the basis of the Ridge regression method. The model was verified using data on the incidence of COVID-19 in the UK, Germany, Japan and Ukraine. The choice of these particular countries with different dynamics of the epidemic process makes it possible to adequately investigate the accuracy of the constructed model.