THE EFFECT OF THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT ON THE POTENTIAL USE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS

Abstract

This research aims to analyze the potential use of nuclear weapons in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in 2022. Based on a literature study, google trend analysis, and media review approach, there are four findings from this study. First, the goal of Ukraine joining NATO is to increase military strength and to obtain support as well as security guarantees from alliance countries is considered. As a result, Russia responded by increasing its military capability to invade Ukraine to maintain its national security. This situation represents  the concept of the security dilemma. Second, the threat of the use of nuclear weapons by Russia as a deterrence strategy against NATO intervention. This intentions have yielded little results, because NATO continues to provide military support to Ukraine. Third, NATO’s weapons assistance to Ukraine has disrupted the balance of power in the international system. The increase in Russian military weapons and nuclear threats as the implementation of the power struggle aims to prevent the NATO alliance from becoming stronger which threatens Russia's national interests. Finally, the media trend analysis indicates that the potential use of nuclear weapons for war is still relatively small and become weaken.