Is Land and Forest Fire in Ogan Komering Ilir, Southern Sumatera, Affected by Climate Change?

Abstract

In 2015, Southern Sumatra region, particularly Ogan Komering Ilir (OKI) regency was stricken by massive fires in peatland and forest areas. Besides intentionally burned, climate change was also suspected as a cause of the wildfire. Increasing temperature, decreasing humidity, and low precipitation are several climate indicators that trigger forest and peatland wildfire. In order to review this presumption, the research needed to be conducted in Southern Sumatra area related to climate change until 30 years long period. So that the climate change can be detected from the climate indicator variabilities such as Temperature, Pressure, Total Precipitation, Relative Humidity, and Wind Speed.Climate parameter data in the long period was obtained from global atmospheric reanalysis data generated by ERA ECMWF (European Centre for Mid-Range Weather Forecast). The climate parameter data are available from 1979 to 2017. This research using three-hour interval climate parameter data. The trend analysis was conducted to observe the variability of every parameter using a linear regression method. The change of every climate parameter was spatially visualized to observe whether it had impacts on land and fire occurrences or not.From the analysis, it was found that all climate parameter was changing slightly per year. All climate parameters changed relatively small each year with increases in temperature 0.014 °C – 0.035°C/year and decreasing pressure 0.0138 – 0.0207 mbar/year. Relative humidity varies from decreasing 0.0311 to increasing 0.0458%/year. Wind speed also varies slightly from decreasing −0.0059 to increasing 0.0074 m/s/year. Their precipitation varies as well from decreasing 2.58 to increasing 5.15 mm/month. The alteration of these parameters indicates the climate change present slightly in southern Sumatra region, particularly in OKI regency, but does not affect land and forest fire occurrence.