Methodological Considerations in the Statistical Modeling of Catastrophe Bond Prices

Abstract

The problem of specifying and fitting a statistical model of the pricing of property catastrophe risk is addressed from a methodological perspective. Notable 21st century published efforts to do this are reviewed. The problem is framed in a business context and various strategic and tactical issues are investigated. A naive application of ordinary least squares regression is seen to have undesirable consequences. Alternative approaches are offered, including weighted least squares with weights inversely proportional to capital requirements, and alternative functional forms. Recommendations are offered.