Forecasting COVID-19 Daily Contraction in Sierra Leone with Implications for Policy Formulation

Abstract

When the World Health Organisation (WHO) announced COVID-19 to be a global pandemic great chaos was brought to the world economy, with institutions and economies forced to close down in a bid to save lives. While it was a well-known fact that there was no immediate cure for the disease, institutions had no option but to utilise non-traditional means of containing the alarming spread of the virus. All around the world, institutions like the health sector and central banks utilised various forecast models as a way of projecting the scale of the spread of the virus and its overall impact on economic well-being. The findings from the ARIMA (4,1,4) model indicate that there is a likelihood of the virus spreading at a rate of 13 contracted cases per day up to 28th February 2021 and beyond. The key take home from this study shows that institutions, particularly the health sector, must stay alert to ensure measures are continually set in place to curb the likelihood of the virus spreading above and beyond the projected estimate. At the same time, institutional support from the central bank, with its stimulus packages, should continue in a bid to diffuse or allay worries of a possible collapse in the economy.