Cyber Diplomacy: NATO/EU Engaging with the Global South

Abstract

Since the end of the Cold War, there has been a movement towards a multipolar world as the geopolitical tectonic plates shift. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is likely to be treated by future historians as the turning point ushering in this new multipolar era. In this new context, (cyber) neutrality seems challenging for regions such as Latin America and Africa. These countries, which sit outside the geopolitical fault lines, naturally tend to strive for a balanced, neutral position. Both regions have strong economic ties with China, while maintaining cultural and historical connections with Europe and the US, despite the complex legacy of the colonial and Cold War eras. However, this equilibrium might lean towards the Chinese and Russian positions regarding cyber policy. It is particularly relevant to address this question given that the regions contain numerous swing states. We will present evidence that NATO and the EU are losing ground to China and Russia’s views on cyberspace, based on three subjects of study: (i) Global South voting patterns in the UN; (ii) the absence of Global South countries in the roster of like-minded countries in the collaborative attribution of advanced persistent threats and recent Russian cyber campaigns against Ukraine; (iii) the use of offensive cyber capabilities by Global South countries to exert information control and surveillance (mostly enabled by Western companies). This paper argues that NATO and the EU must face reality and engage with the Global South – particularly Africa and Latin America – to maintain a competitive advantage in cyber policy. We suggest a more straightforward values-based approach that involves NATO and the EU engaging in capacity-building and information-sharing with the Global South.