Modeling with Hyperbolic Restrictions: The Nigerian Population Dynamics

Abstract

In demographics, an intercensal estimate is an estimate of population between official census dates with both census counts being known. Some nations produce regular intercensal estimates while others do not. Intercensal estimates can be less or more informative than official census figures, depending on methodology, completeness, accuracy (as they can have significant undercounts or overestimates) and date of data, and can be released by nations, subnational entities, or other organizations including those not affiliated with governments. Being able to forecast population and even being able to answer some interesting questions about population in the past, depends on developing accurate mathematical models of population growth. Analysis and projection of population are based on population figure as it informs an objective distribution of social amenities by government. Hence, knowledge about past, current and future population are fundamental in every aspect of decision making. In view of this, current projection of this population figures is of great necessity. Ofori et al. [1] applied exponential and logistic growth models to model the population growth of Ghana using data from 1960 to 2011. Dean Hathout [2] modelled population growth using exponential and hyperbolic models. Oyamakin et.al [3,4] compare exponential and hyperbolic growth models in height and diameter increment of Pine (Pinus caribaea).The aim of this study is to investigate the property of Exponential Growth Model (EGM) and Hyperbolic Exponential Growth Model (HEGM) in modeling Nigeria population data and to determine the intercensal estimate, and compare the predictive performance of the two models.