Predicting the Future of Achieving Herd Immunity in New York City

Abstract

COVID-19 has a huge impact on the economic and social development of the world. In this paper, a simulation model of virus transmission was developed using the netlogo platform based on the characteristics of humans developing acquired immunity to a virus they once had, and predicted the prospects of achieving herd immunity under two scenarios: no vaccination and vaccination of a certain percentage of the population. The results show that failure to vaccinate leads to a longer duration of the outbreak, as well as an increase in the number of infected individuals and overall mortality. If vaccination is administered, the time to achieve herd immunity will be substantially reduced.