A Risk Decision Method for Emergency Response Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory

Abstract

Emergency decision making problem is a valuable research topic with many practical backgrounds. Although some research has been conducted, the behavior of DMs and the dependence among criteria are seldom considered in emergency decision making analysis. In this paper, a risk decision method for emergency response based on cumulative prospect theory (CPT) is proposed by extending the CPT to dependent criteria. In the method, firstly, a value function with two variables is constructed by extending the value function of CPT to two dependent criteria. Then, the weighting function of CPT is used to determine the weights of possible results concerning each alternative. Thus, prospect values of alternatives are calculated by aggregating the values and weights of possible results. Furthermore, overall prospect values are obtained by aggregating the prospect values and costs of alternatives. Moreover, a ranking of alternatives is determined according to the overall prospect values. Finally, a potential application is used to illustrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed method. Introducing the behavior of DMs and the dependence among criteria into emergency decision making analysis would make the results of decision analysis more consistent with the institution of DMs, and will enhance the application value of the proposed method.