Multimode safety metric analysis

Abstract

This paper describes the development of a safety analysis model to quantify safety tradeoffs in the intercity mode spilt process. The model developed is part of the Transportation System Analysis Model (TSAM) - a multimode planning tool. The model presented estimates potential fatalities for different modes of transportation (auto and air) using historical fatality metrics and the annual intercity travel demand calculated in the TSAM model. The estimation of auto fatalities is represented as a function of Vehicle Mile Traveled (VMT) and by road Functional Classifications (FC). Look-up tables of states FC (Functional Classification) fatality rates are derived from highway statistic databases and tested using parametric and non parametric ANOVA tests. A network assignment model is used to estimate auto traffic volumes on the network. The analysis presents an example calculation of intercity safety when changes in airline fares induce higher use of auto for short to medium intercity trips. The model and algorithms developed are integrated and visually displayed in TSAM model.