SİSTEM DİNAMİĞİ YAKLAŞIMI İLE COVID-19 EKONOMİK KRİZİ SIRASINDA OPTİMAL PARA POLİTİKASININ BELİRLENMESİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Abstract

Starting from mid-March 2020, Covid-19 outbreak spread across the world, the implementation of the social distance and closing the country borders led to the shutdown of economic activities and bring uncertainties for financial markets. Uncertainties have caused a decrease in global risk appetite and resulted to important portfolio outflows from emerging countries. In this process CBRT has started to adopt monetary expansion measures through rate cuts asset purchases to stimulate the financial markets. In this context, this article aims to explore the effects of expansionary monetary policies of CBRT on economic growth, inflation and financial stability in Turkey with a holistic approach. Using a dynamic model, two scenarios were developed covering the * Res. Ass., Hasan Kalyoncu University, Institute of Social Sciences, Department of International Trade and Logistics, Ph.D. Student, Gaziantep, Turkey. E-mail: oya.ozturk.2018@gmail.com, ORCID: 0000-0002-3507-4865 ** Hasan Kalyoncu University, Institute of Social Sciences, Department of Economics, Ph.D. Student, Gaziantep, Turkey. E-mail: selcuk.gerlikhan@bayteks.com, ORCID: 0000-0002-8292-149X *** Lec., Hasan Kalyoncu University, Vocational High School, Department of Banking and Insurance, Gaziantep, Turkey. E-mail: ilhan.kanusagi@hku.edu.tr, ORCID: 0000-0002-0589-1389 **** Res. Ass., Hasan Kalyoncu University, Institute of Social Sciences, Department of International Trade and Logistics, Ph.D. Student, Gaziantep, Turkey. E-mail: can.ozcan@hku.edu.tr, ORCID: 0000-0002-9894-1102 ***** Prof. Dr., Hasan Kalyoncu University, Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences, Department of International Trade and Logistics, Gaziantep, Turkey. E-mail: zvildan.serin@hku.edu.tr, ORCID: 0000-0002-5514-7910 Oya ÖZTÜRK • Selçuk GERLİKHAN • İlhan KANUŞAĞI • Can ÖZCAN • Zehra Vildan SERİN 224 period from January 2010 to May 2020. In the first scenario, when monetary expansion policy is implemented, it is assumed that the policy rate and required reserves will not change, but a growth-oriented policy will continue. In the second model, a tight monetary policy, foreign capital inflow and, if necessary, a foreign currency intervention scenario was designed. It was observed that an expansionary monetary policy scenario that is not based on external resources did not fully realize the expected economic recovery. The findings obtained in the second scenario are more effective than the first scenario. Besides that, the second scenario is found more effective on growth, inflation and financial stability.