Private Intergenerational Transfers and Their Ability to Offset the Fiscal Burden of Ageing

Abstract

The ratio of retirees to workers in developed countries is expected to increase sharply in the next few decades. In the presence of unfunded income support policies, this increase in old age dependency is expected to increase the future fiscal burden of ageing, which is seen as a threat to living standards. Private intergenerational transfers in the form of bequests are also expected to increase in ageing societies, which may offset the adverse effects of the fiscal burden of population ageing on future living standards. This paper quantifies the ability of these private intergenerational transfers to offset the future fiscal burden of ageing in Australia. This is done through developing a dynamic overlapping generations simulation model with realistic demographics. Calculations based on steady-state simulations (with a pay-as-you-go tax rate equal to 3.3% of GDP) suggest that a bequest to GDP ratio of 1% offsets approximately one-third of the fiscal burden over the lifecycle when measured as a proportion of simple labour income and one-eleventh of the fiscal burden when measured as a proportion of full income (labour income plus leisure). The model is calibrated for Australia under a small open economy assumption such that the optimal solution mimics important cross-sectional and time-series fundamentals of the Australian economy. For the non-steady-state, intergenerational accounting suggests that the empirically plausible intergenerational transfers are strong enough to offset most of the tax burden (80–90%) when measured as a percentage of simple labour income and up to one-quarter of the burden when fiscal burden is measured as a percentage of full income.