Moneyball in Offensive vs Defensive Actions in Soccer

I. Zaytseva, D. Shaposhnikov
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引用次数: 2

Abstract

There is an established tradition in soccer society, for both soccer fans and club managers to value forwards more than defensive players. However, the soccer rules imply an equally important role of goals scored and goals conceded in a team win. This paper employs these facts to formulate the research hypothesis of undervalued defensive, compared to offensive actions, by professional soccer clubs, known as Moneyball phenomenon in sports economics literature. To test our hypothesis, we use two separate data sets at team and player level (1,224 and 776 observations correspondingly) from two seasons (2017-2019) of the German Bundesliga. We estimate the two groups of models with a dependent variable being, correspondingly, an indicator of win and a market value. We keep the set of controls as similar as possible to make the results of the two groups of models comparable with each other, in terms of a relative contribution of offensive and defensive actions. Offensive actions are measured by shots and key passes, while tackles, interceptions and clearances stay for defensive actions variables. All the key variables are normalized, and the resulting estimates demonstrate both “absolute” and “relative” Moneyball in offense vs defense in different model specifications. This is the first introduction of a term and method of a “relative” Moneyball, to our knowledge. In addition, our results show that there is room for improvement for Bundesliga clubs’ cost of win efficiency, in redistributing funds from offense to defense, at least to some extent
点球成金在进攻vs防守的足球动作
足球界有一个既定的传统,球迷和俱乐部经理都认为前锋比防守球员更重要。然而,足球规则暗示了进球和失球在球队获胜中同样重要的作用。本文利用这些事实,提出了职业足球俱乐部防守相对于进攻被低估的研究假设,这在体育经济学文献中被称为Moneyball现象。为了验证我们的假设,我们使用了德甲两个赛季(2017-2019)的球队和球员层面的两个独立数据集(分别为1224和776个观测值)。我们估计两组模型的因变量是,相应的,一个指标的胜利和一个市场价值。我们保持控制集尽可能相似,以使两组模型的结果相互比较,就进攻和防御行动的相对贡献而言。进攻行动是通过射门和关键传球来衡量的,而抢断、拦截和解围则是防守行动的变量。所有的关键变量都被归一化,结果估计在不同的模型规格下,进攻和防守都是“绝对的”和“相对的”Moneyball。据我们所知,这是第一次引入“相对”Moneyball的术语和方法。此外,我们的研究结果表明,德甲俱乐部的赢球效率成本,在将资金从进攻重新分配到防守方面,至少在一定程度上还有改进的空间
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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