The Impact of Monetary Policy on the Investment Complex of Russia

Abstract

An active discussion continues in Russia regarding the monetary instruments used and the degree of their impact on economic dynamics. The article examines the impact of the monetary policy implemented by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on the investment complex in the period from 2000 to 2021. For this period, an analysis of the dependence characterizing the investment complex of Russia on the monetary policy is carried out. In the paper, the investment complex is considered with a breakdown into mechanical engineering, residential and non-residential construction, investments in fixed assets. At the same time, mechanical engineering is studied in detail with a breakdown into subsections of Russian National Classifier of Economic Activities and, additionally, for five enlarged industries. Most of the constructed regression equations demonstrate a statistically significant effect of indicators that are influenced by monetary policy instruments on the dynamics of the main indicators of the investment complex. For example, the interest rate affects the overwhelming number of variables under consideration, and the money supply affects each type of investment in fixed assets, in contrast to other independent variables. For the predominant part of the equations, the value of the coefficient of determination is more than 80%, which indicates a good quality of the model and reliably selected explanatory variables. Based on the results of the calculations, it was concluded that monetary policy has an impact on the investment complex of Russia. This determines its importance for the formation of promising dynamics of the Russian economy.