The Demand for Red Meats and Related Foods in Canada

M. Veeman, Peter Y. Chen, T. Veeman
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The models are the widely used but theoretically inconsistent double logarithmic model and the single-equation version of the almost ideal demand model. Various tests of the appropriate measure of the explanatory income variable support the use of expenditure on meat, rather than per capita disposable income, as the income variable. Exogeneity tests of the appropriateness of single equation demand specification are not conclusive but tend to support the use of non-simultaneous quantity- or price-dependent models. The analysis of structural change in the single equation models indicates a structural shift in the Canadian demand for meat during the mid-1970s. In the second and major phase of the study, two multiple-equation demand systems, the almost ideal demand system and the translogarithmic demand system, were fitted the quarterly data for beef, pork, chicken, and turkey from 1967 through 1987. One contribution of this study to applied demand analysis is to confirm the importance of habit persistence in analyzing demand. Inconclusion of lagged meat consumption variables materially improve the fit, performance, and consistency with theory-based restirctions of both demand systems. Results from the system analyses of demand also indicated a change in the structure of the demand functions for meat dating from the mid 1970s. Use of a variety of tests of structural change indicated a shift in the intercept terms, rather than in the slopes of the demand functions, implying a change in consumer preferences or tastes away from beef and toward chicken after accounting for the influence of changes in prices and income. A minor or nonsignificant structural change is evident for pork. The cause of the change in preferences is not clear. 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引用次数: 0

Abstract

This study focuses on the question of whether variations in total consumption of meat and the mix of different types of meats consumed in Canada over the past twenty-five years have been primarily due to changes in the levels of prices and consumers' income or whether structural changes in red meat demand, due to change in consumers' tastes, have occured. Since recent economic literature indicates that findings of structural change in demand may be senstive to functional form or other features of model specification, several model specifications were tested. In the initial phase of the study, issues of demand specification were analysed using two single-equation functional forms of the various meat demand models fitted to annual time-series data for beef, pork, poultry, and fish from 1960 through 1987. The models are the widely used but theoretically inconsistent double logarithmic model and the single-equation version of the almost ideal demand model. Various tests of the appropriate measure of the explanatory income variable support the use of expenditure on meat, rather than per capita disposable income, as the income variable. Exogeneity tests of the appropriateness of single equation demand specification are not conclusive but tend to support the use of non-simultaneous quantity- or price-dependent models. The analysis of structural change in the single equation models indicates a structural shift in the Canadian demand for meat during the mid-1970s. In the second and major phase of the study, two multiple-equation demand systems, the almost ideal demand system and the translogarithmic demand system, were fitted the quarterly data for beef, pork, chicken, and turkey from 1967 through 1987. One contribution of this study to applied demand analysis is to confirm the importance of habit persistence in analyzing demand. Inconclusion of lagged meat consumption variables materially improve the fit, performance, and consistency with theory-based restirctions of both demand systems. Results from the system analyses of demand also indicated a change in the structure of the demand functions for meat dating from the mid 1970s. Use of a variety of tests of structural change indicated a shift in the intercept terms, rather than in the slopes of the demand functions, implying a change in consumer preferences or tastes away from beef and toward chicken after accounting for the influence of changes in prices and income. A minor or nonsignificant structural change is evident for pork. The cause of the change in preferences is not clear. Perceptions of healthy diets, changes in the availability of and preferences for fast food items, and changes in the demographic structure of the population as the population has aged are possible explanations. The study provides updates estimates of the responsiveness of Canadian consumption of the various meats to changes in prices and consumers' expenditure or income. The estimates based on the system analyses are preffered, since theya re more strongly grounded in economic theory. As expected, all estimates of price elasticity of demand are less than unity. Both system model approaches indicate that chicken and pork consumption are slightly more responsive to changes in price than is beef consumption. Turkey consumption varies much less than other meats in response to price changes. As expected, the demand estimates based on quarterly data are slightly more responsive to price changes than the estiamates based on annual data. Overall, habit persistence is important in red meat consumption and consumption changes have occured in response to changes in prices and incomes. Nontheless, after accounting for these influences, there is evidence of a structural change in demand away from beef and towards chicken. This has accounted for a decrease of 6% in the expenditure share of beef and an increase of 33% in the budget share of chicken. In relative terms, about 20% of the increase per capita chicken consumption and about 25% of the decrease in per capita beef consumption seems to have been associated with the changes in consumer preferences. The results from this study suggest potential market strategies for livestock producers are to emphasize production of lean meat, encourage fast food products, and encourage cost competitiveness throughout the industry,
加拿大对红肉及相关食品的需求
这项研究的重点是,在过去的25年里,加拿大的肉类总消费量和不同类型肉类的混合消费量的变化是否主要是由于价格水平和消费者收入的变化,或者由于消费者口味的变化,红肉需求是否发生了结构性变化。由于最近的经济学文献表明,需求结构变化的结果可能对模型规格的功能形式或其他特征敏感,因此对几个模型规格进行了测试。在研究的初始阶段,对需求规范问题进行了分析,使用了两种单方程函数形式的各种肉类需求模型来拟合1960年至1987年牛肉、猪肉、家禽和鱼类的年度时间序列数据。这些模型是广泛使用但理论上不一致的双对数模型和几乎理想需求模型的单方程版本。对解释性收入变量适当度量的各种测试支持使用肉类支出,而不是人均可支配收入作为收入变量。对单一方程需求规格适当性的外生性检验不是决定性的,但倾向于支持使用非同时数量或价格依赖的模型。单方程模型的结构变化分析表明,在20世纪70年代中期,加拿大对肉类的需求发生了结构性转变。在研究的第二阶段和主要阶段,两个多方程需求系统,几乎理想需求系统和跨对数需求系统,拟合牛肉,猪肉,鸡肉和火鸡从1967年到1987年的季度数据。本研究对应用需求分析的贡献之一是确认了习惯持久性在需求分析中的重要性。滞后肉类消费变量的结论极大地提高了两种需求系统基于理论约束的拟合性、性能和一致性。需求系统分析的结果还表明,从20世纪70年代中期开始,肉类需求函数的结构发生了变化。对结构变化的各种测试表明,截距项发生了变化,而不是需求函数的斜率发生了变化,这意味着在考虑到价格和收入变化的影响后,消费者的偏好或口味发生了变化,从牛肉转向鸡肉。对于猪肉来说,一个轻微或不显著的结构性变化是显而易见的。这种偏好变化的原因尚不清楚。对健康饮食的认识、快餐产品的可得性和偏好的变化,以及人口结构随着人口老龄化而发生的变化,都是可能的解释。这项研究提供了加拿大各种肉类消费对价格变化和消费者支出或收入变化的反应性的最新估计。基于系统分析的估计更受欢迎,因为它们更有经济理论基础。正如预期的那样,对需求价格弹性的所有估计都小于1。两种系统模型方法都表明,鸡肉和猪肉消费对价格变化的响应略高于牛肉消费。与其他肉类相比,火鸡消费受价格变化的影响要小得多。正如预期的那样,基于季度数据的需求估计比基于年度数据的估计对价格变化的反应更灵敏。总的来说,习惯的持久性在红肉消费中很重要,消费的变化是随着价格和收入的变化而发生的。然而,在考虑了这些影响之后,有证据表明需求发生了结构性变化,从牛肉转向鸡肉。这导致牛肉的支出份额减少了6%,鸡肉的预算份额增加了33%。相对而言,人均鸡肉消费量增加的20%和人均牛肉消费量减少的25%似乎与消费者偏好的变化有关。这项研究的结果表明,畜牧业生产者的潜在市场策略是强调瘦肉的生产,鼓励快餐产品,并鼓励整个行业的成本竞争力。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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