The Remake Of Geography Geo-Political And Geo-Economic Reasons For Shifting From E-W To N-S Perspective In The Three Seas Initiative Region

Abstract

By location and legacy, the Three Seas Initiative (3SI) lies at the crossroads of what remains culturally labelled “Central” and “Eastern” Europe(s). The grouping reunites 12 countries that, with the exception of “Old Europe” Austria, share the post-communist NATO and EU membership destiny of the so-called “New Europe” group, with the particular sequels and hopes associated to it. For centuries, the space between the Baltic, Adriatic and Black seas absorbed the energies of Middle Age imperial tectonics. In the 20th century inter bellum epoch, the region hosted failed attempts of aggregation against latent aggressive menaces coming from an avenging Germany and an ascending Soviet Russia. For almost fifty years, communism made the region an inward-looking camp. Contemporary 3SI, reminiscent of the century-old “Intermarium” Polish idea, is a 2015 project emerged from Poland too and interestedly backed up by Croatia. It refurbished constant issues in the region: concern in relation to Russia (including the energy dependency), confidence in the US security “protectorate” and cautiousness towards the old EU Brussels/Berlin “cores”. This paper surveys the rationales, of both (geo)political and (geo)economic nature, related to the 3SI, comparing them with similar historical initiatives and with alternative/complementary projects prepared in this geographical space. It observes commonalities but also differences of vision between 3SI members and the partners from the hard-core Euro-Atlantic twin-conclaves, as well as among 3SI members themselves: there are clashes inside-NATO and inside-3SI over the attitude towards Russia as well as divisions insideEU and intra-3SI over the evolution within the Union itself. Starting from the very premise that the strength in (geo)politics requires solid economic structures, the essay observes the fields identified by the artisans of the 3SI as infrastructural backbones of the region, as parts and parcels of the competitive/convergent/cohesive EU integration: energy, transportation and digitalization. An earmarked case study is dedicated to Romania, country holding the Presidency of the EU Council in the first half of 2019, following a celebration of a century of nation-state unity and forging a societal debate on its place and role in the region/continent/world. International Conference on Research in Management & Economics Serbia | Belgrade | December 15-17, 2018 58」 www.imeconf.org info@imeconf.org Introduction The world is the result of forces inherent in human nature, and this, according to Thucydides (the “grandfather” of political realism, if it is to accept Morgenthau’s modern “paternity”), is animated by the motivations of phobos, kerdos and doxa: that is fear, selfishness and glory. The realists, metricians and merceologists of power (practiced between individuals, but also among nations), map the world in terms of balances of power. They temper the idealists, forgers of concord (between people or between states) via institutionalized conciliums, with a frustrating postulate. With a martial mine, the realists say that institutions, as fruits of the alleged triumph of reason, nevertheless remain secondary products of primary balances of power, and irrespective of epochs. On September 17 and 18, 2018, Romania hosted a summit under the aegis of the Three Seas Initiative (3SI), framed, prima facie, in the matrix of international political idealism, though overflowing with realist rationales. This initiative brings together 12 states, linked by a number of obvious features: the geographical position between the Adriatic, Baltic and Black seas, and the historical condition of former-socialist countries, “new” EU members (excluding Austria) and NATO (with the same exception). They are heavily driven by disguised balancing calculations too: an inner-Europe balancer between (Poland-centred) Eastern Europe and Germany (-based nucleus); an outer-Europe balancer between the EU(-US) and Russian(-Chinese) worldwide perspectives. The paper is divided into four main parts. The first one sketches an overview of the EU economic and political landscape, pointing to some indicators and indications with respect to the internal and external atmosphere of the 3SI conclave, which seeks to develop integrationist opportunities on the N-S geographical alignment, defying the ancient E-W positional challenges. The second part represents a short inventory of geopolitical initiatives in the region, pointing to the unchanging features of the Central-Eastern European space; this space got caught into the nipper of both/either territorial (then) and/or economic (now) forces, which were not always as conflicting as they were depicted, but seem to be of cartel-type nature (see the energetic Germany-Russia ties). The third and fourth parts of the paper survey the transition from geopolitical to geo-economic reasoning, applied to Romania perspective on 3SI, linking this orientation and option to the unchanging as well as changing geopolitical/territorial profile of the country as to the geoeconomic motives derived from its somehow delicate position in Central-Eastern Europe. Romania celebrated in 2018 a century of nation-state unity, moment that inspired political and economic reflections on its status and statute in the region/continent/world and, in the same time, Romania holds, in S1 2019, the rotating Presidency of the Council of the European Union, a time for reflection to the future of the EU and of its pieces of region-specific cooperation and consolidation. International Conference on Research in Management & Economics Serbia | Belgrade | December 15-17, 2018 59」 www.imeconf.org info@imeconf.org 3SI: project of Central-Eastern EU economies/polities Twelve EU member states participate in the 3SI: the Republic of Austria, the Republic of Bulgaria, the Republic of Croatia, the Czech Republic, the Republic of Estonia, Hungary, the Republic of Latvia, the Republic of Lithuania, the Republic of Poland, Romania, the Slovak Republic and the Republic of Slovenia. They want more from 3SI than either in isolation or as