Using SIR Model and Recurrence Formula to Predict the Spread of COVID-19 in Sambalpur: A Mathematical Study

Abstract

Corona Virus has spread across the globe and is creating havoc. Lockdown is being imposed worldwide depending on the number of cases. Everyone are advised to wear masks, follow social distancing, and use hand sanitizers to keep them safe. But all these precautions are not enough to curb the spread of the disease. People are still getting infected even after taking proper precautions and obeying the lockdown rule. We need to know in advance the approximate number of infected people so that we can devise better precautionary measures to curb the spread of the virus. So we use a simple SIR Model and solve it using basic differentiation and integration techniques and then use recurrence formula approach to predict the spread of COVID-19 in the city of Sambalpur of Odisha state. We compare the outcome of the model with the real time data and we arrive at the conclusion that the model is efficient in predicting the spread using the recurrence formula till the date 05/06/2021.