Feedback effect between Volatility of capital flows and financial stability: evidence from Democratic Republic of Congo

Pinshi Paula
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Financial system being the place of metting capital flows (equality between saving and investment), a volatility of capital flows can destroy the robustness and good working of financial system, it means subvert financial stability. The same a weak financial system, few regulated and bad manage can exacerbate volatility of capital flows and finely undermine financial stability. The present study provides evidence on feedback effect between volatility of capital flows and financial stability in Democratic republic of Congo (DRC), and estimate the contributions of macroeconomic and macroprudential policies in the attenuation volatility of capital flows effects on financial stability and in the prevention of instability financial. Assessment dynamic regression model a la Feldstein-Horioka we showed that financial system is widely supplied and financed by internationals capital flows. This implicate Congolese economy is financially mobile, that can be dangerous for financial stability. The study dynamic econometric of financial system's absolute size, we stipulate financial system has a systemic weight on real economy. Hence a shock of financial system could have devastating effects on Congolese economy. We estimate a vector autoregressive (VAR) model for prove the bilateral causality and impacts of macroeconomic and macroprudential policies. With regard to results, it proved on the one there is a feedback effect between volatility of capital flows and financial stability, on the other hand macroeconomic and macroprudential policies can't attenuate volatility of capital flows and prevent instability financial. It prove macroprudential approach is given a better result than monetary policy. The implementation of framework macroprudential by Central Bank of Congo will be beneficial in the realization of financial stability and attenuation volatility of capital flows.Keywords: Volatility of capital flows, financial stability, macroeconomic and macroprudential policies
资本流动波动与金融稳定的反馈效应:来自刚果民主共和国的证据
金融体系是满足资本流动(储蓄与投资之间的平等)的场所,资本流动的波动会破坏金融体系的稳健性和良好运作,这意味着颠覆金融稳定。同样,一个脆弱的金融体系,缺乏监管和管理不善,可能加剧资本流动的波动性,并严重破坏金融稳定。本研究提供了刚果民主共和国(DRC)资本流动波动与金融稳定之间反馈效应的证据,并估计宏观经济和宏观审慎政策在衰减资本流动波动对金融稳定的影响和预防金融不稳定方面的贡献。基于Feldstein-Horioka的评估动态回归模型表明,金融体系是由国际资本流动广泛供给和融资的。这意味着刚果经济具有金融流动性,这可能对金融稳定构成危险。通过对金融体系绝对规模的动态计量经济学研究,确定了金融体系对实体经济的系统权重。因此,金融体系的冲击可能对刚果经济造成毁灭性影响。我们估计了一个向量自回归(VAR)模型来证明宏观经济和宏观审慎政策的双边因果关系和影响。结果表明,一方面资本流动的波动性与金融稳定之间存在反馈效应,另一方面宏观经济和宏观审慎政策不能减弱资本流动的波动性,防止金融不稳定。结果表明,宏观审慎政策比货币政策具有更好的效果。刚果央行宏观审慎框架的实施将有利于实现金融稳定和衰减资本流动的波动性。关键词:资本流动波动,金融稳定,宏观经济和宏观审慎政策
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