Quantifying the Economic Impact of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Nile River Basin

Abstract

Tensions between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia have grown as a result of concerns regarding water security. These tensions have been magnified by the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam along the Nile River. The dam has potential to increase power production of the region while also creating risk for downstream countries. Therefore, this research will focus on quantifying the economic impact of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam to understand its implications for the Nile River basin. This will be accomplished by utilizing historical data and case studies to identify factors which may significantly change as a result of the dam construction for the countries of Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia. Cases of interest include the High Aswan Dam in Egypt as well as the Merowe Dam located in Sudan. Ultimately, the results of this research take the form of analysis conducted on water security, land use, agriculture, hydropower and the broader economic considerations for the Nile River basin. Additionally, despite the uncertainty of future management strategies, revenue generation was projected using two filling timelines. By quantifying the economic impact of the dam, the results of this research will provide an understanding of how the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam will influence the future of the Nile River region.