A validation process for probablistic production costing programs (for electric utilities)

Abstract

The chronological simulation program BENCHMARK can be used in a Monte Carlo mode to produce approximate production cost distributions. An exhaustive enumeration experiment can be conducted to measure their accuracy. An example is given for a power system with seven thermal units. Three price scenarios were included on the cost of replacement power for generation shortfalls. Chronological simulation programs such as BENCHMARK can also be calibrated when used in the deterministic mode to match system operating policy. The Monte Carlo procedure can then be used to validate production costing results for large systems with some assurance. Cumulative probability distribution curves produced in this process present useful information for decision making.<>