Factors of success of priority investment projects in the sphere of forest exploitation in Russia: econometric analysis

E. D. Ivantsova, A. Pyzhev
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Objective: to identify the factors that determined the success of investment projects in the field of forest development on the basis of available information about the enterprises – applicants for such projects.Methods: regression analysis of binary choice models, logistic regression.Results: the key constraints of the development of the Russian forest sector are identified. The review of the most relevant scientific research on the topic of investments into forest complex is carried out. Taking into account the identified problems and the analysis of the global experience in solving them, the most promising mechanism in this context was identified – that is, state support for investment projects from the priority list in the field of forest development. Based on a sample of 200 projects, a logit regression model was evaluated, which determines the impact of project parameters on the probability of their successful implementation. The hypothesis that there is a statistically significant impact on the success of investment projects was confirmed for a number of factors: the average revenue and average cost of fixed assets of the enterprise, the absence of employees in the organization, the connection of the enterprise with foreign capital and the fact that the enterprise has been unprofitable for the past three years.Scientific novelty: for the first time, estimates were made of the contribution of the forest complex enterprises’ characteristics to the probability of successful implementation of priority investment projects in the field of forest development.Practical signifi       : the high predictive ability of the model allows using information about the project success determinants to adjust the mechanism for providing support, which will enable to increase the share of successfully implemented projects and therefore increase the effectiveness of this measure of stimulating investment in the development of the Russian forestry industry.
俄罗斯森林开发领域优先投资项目成功的因素:计量经济学分析
目标:根据有关森林发展领域投资项目申请人企业的现有资料,查明决定投资项目成功的因素。方法:二元选择模型回归分析、logistic回归。结果:确定了俄罗斯林业部门发展的主要制约因素。对森林综合体投资专题的最相关科学研究进行了审查。考虑到已查明的问题和对解决这些问题的全球经验的分析,在这方面确定了最有希望的机制- -即国家支助森林发展领域优先清单上的投资项目。基于200个项目的样本,评估了一个logit回归模型,该模型确定了项目参数对其成功实施概率的影响。对投资项目成功有统计学显著影响的假设得到了以下几个因素的证实:企业的平均收入和固定资产的平均成本,组织中没有员工,企业与外资的联系以及企业在过去三年中没有盈利的事实。科学上的新颖性:第一次估计了森林综合企业的特点对成功执行森林发展领域优先投资项目的可能性的贡献。实际意义:该模型的高预测能力允许使用有关项目成功决定因素的信息来调整提供支持的机制,这将能够增加成功实施项目的份额,从而提高这一措施的有效性,以刺激投资俄罗斯林业的发展。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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