A fuzzy cognitive map model of the repercussions of greek PSI on cypriot economy

Abstract

This paper introduces an alternative methodology for developing fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) for modeling socio-politico-economic systems. The methodology is novel with respect to the proper identification, definition and initialization of the concepts and sensitivities, as well as on the updating rule. It is based on realistic and objective knowledge extraction from the experts. Within this work certain steps are suggested to be followed by the FCM developer(s) and the experts for achieving a more reliable FCM system. The features of the proposed methodology are applied and tested on a complicate system taken from the recent Cyprus and Greece economic realities. More specifically several scenarios were developed and applied to investigate the effects of the Greek PSI on a multitude of other parameters. The study was done in February of 2012, on several parameters of the Cyprus economy. The most interesting results taken by the simulations of the system are presented and discussed in this work.