An Accurate Power Load Forecasting Technique Based on the Fusion of Clustering Algorithms

Muchao Xiang, Zaixun Ling, Xuesong Zhang, Lingfeng Ma, Junwen He
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Abstract

An upgraded ANN model and clustering algorithm are coupled in a suggested combined model forecasting technique to increase the prediction accuracy of power system load forecasting. The samples are clustered using the clustering method, and the data with comparable properties are used as the input for the prediction, strengthening sample regularity and increasing prediction accuracy. The classic ANN prediction model is also enhanced by the multi-output technique, which increases the level of model fitting and brings the output closer to the actual value. The proposed clustering technique is integrated to create the combined prediction model. Finally, the combined model’s efficacy is evaluated using the data set from the 2012 Global Energy Competition load forecasting competition. The proposed method enhances prediction accuracy and has strong learning and adaptability capabilities when compared to the conventional ANN prediction model and conventional deep learning prediction model.
基于聚类算法融合的电力负荷准确预测技术
为了提高电力系统负荷预测的预测精度,提出了一种改进的人工神经网络模型与聚类算法相结合的组合模型预测技术。采用聚类方法对样本进行聚类,并将具有可比性的数据作为预测的输入,增强了样本的规律性,提高了预测精度。经典的人工神经网络预测模型也通过多输出技术得到增强,提高了模型拟合的水平,使输出更接近实际值。将提出的聚类技术集成到组合预测模型中。最后,利用2012年全球能源竞赛负荷预测大赛的数据集对组合模型的有效性进行了评价。与传统的人工神经网络预测模型和传统的深度学习预测模型相比,该方法提高了预测精度,具有较强的学习能力和自适应能力。
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