Studying the Dynamic Effects of Natural Gas Prices on Supply Security, a Systems Approach

M. Amin-Naseri, M. Asali, Farzaneh Daneshzand, M. Dourandish
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Abstract

Abstract: ensuring a reliable energy supply and demand system with appropriate growth is the main concern of any country for its comprehensive development. Domestic energy prices play an important role in energy security by controlling demand growth, and by incentivizing investments in energy resources development. In this paper, a simulation model is developed to explore how determining different prices of natural gas for various domestic demand sectors, i.e. differential pricing, affects supply security. The domestic natural gas consumption is categorized in four groups of the residential, power plants, industrial and transportation, and the dynamics between prices, supply and demand are modeled using a system dynamics model. The model is applied to a case study and various pricing policies and their influence on natural gas income and production are explored, and the minimum price growth for each sector that provides supply security is proposed.
天然气价格对供应安全的动态影响研究——系统方法
摘要:确保一个可靠的、适度增长的能源供需体系是任何一个国家全面发展的主要关注点。国内能源价格通过控制需求增长和激励能源资源开发投资,在能源安全方面发挥着重要作用。本文建立了一个模拟模型,探讨不同国内需求部门确定不同的天然气价格(即差异定价)如何影响供应安全。将国内天然气消费分为住宅、发电厂、工业和运输四类,并采用系统动力学模型对价格、供需之间的动态关系进行建模。将该模型应用于一个案例研究,探讨了各种定价政策及其对天然气收入和产量的影响,并提出了提供供应安全的每个部门的最低价格增长。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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