The Soviet Leadership and Kremlinology in the 1980s

Abstract

This chapter focuses on the CIA’s study of the leadership of the USSR, a practice sometimes known as Kremlinology. Periods of transition in the leadership of the USSR were extremely significant for the CIA, and the accession of Andropov was no different. Andropov swiftly took power within a week of Brezhnev’s death, and the CIA had to move quicky to assess how he would lead and shape the USSR. This is the focus of the first document. Andropov was but one of a succession of short-lived Soviet premiers, though. And the CIA had to assess the situation constantly. The remainder of the chapter takes a chronological look at successive CIA analyses of the likely successors to the ailing and aging Andropov through to Gorbachev. Documents: Assessment of Andropov’s Power; Gorbachev, the New Broom.