Forecasting the annual electricity consumption of Turkey using a hybrid model

Abstract

In this study, we implemented traditional, artificial intelligence and hybrid methods to predict electricity consumption of Turkey. While traditional method is multiple linear regression and artificial intelligence method is artificial neural network, hybrid method is a new method combining these two methods. The data used in the study was provided from Turkish Electricity Transmission Company, Turkish Electricity Distribution Company, Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources and Turkish Statistical Institute which are the public institutions in Turkey. The performance was evaluated using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean square error (MSE) and root mean square error (RMSE). The test of the proposed hybrid model resulted in an average absolute forecast error of 2.25 percent.