Emergency Forecasting on the Basis of the Bifurcation Analysis Practice-Oriented to Local Climate Dynamics

Abstract

Specialized data processing aimed to the emergency forecasting on local climate dynamics over last century from the bifurcation analysis viewpoint can suppose analytics on specific phenomena which were out of considerations until recently. The paper discusses a pilot version of the computer software, where one of such phenomena (namely, so-called interannual temperature variability) is involved into the consideration in daily terms for time and temperature coordinates. Cycling is organized per a local climate system, where five logically independent procedures operate with specialized 3D-structure. Each 3D-structure consists of 20-50 thousands samples of the meteorological observations on land surface air temperature daily means. The theoretical base is provided by the conceptual model on local climate dynamics (so-called HDS-model), where both the amplitude quantization (limited by the temperature Hysteresis) and the time quantization (the Double Synchronization) compete. Thus alternations between three elementary dynamical processes with the same period (one year) and different patterns of annual warming-cooling cycles exist instead of traditional trend estimations calculated for the annual and/or monthly means. We believe that the results could be interesting for scientists and specialists in the research and practical fields connected with consequences of the climate changes.