Incident duration model on urban freeways using Ordered Probit Model

Abstract

Effective traffic incident management requires a full understanding of the various corresponding properties to accurately estimate incident durations and to benefit decision makings of reducing the impact of non-recurring incident relevant congestions. This paper incorporates discrete choice theory in incident duration prediction. Ordered Probit Model is employed to forecast the incident duration. All 62941 incident records from Beijing Transportation Management Bureau are used for model establishment and other 8000 records for validation. The correct estimation ratio of the model is 69.11%, which shows the reliability of the model is rather satisfactory.