A SIMULATION STUDY ON UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH BACKCALCULATION METHODOLOGY

Abstract

Monte-Carlo Simulation is one of the standard tools for comparing and validating statistical methodologies. In this paper an attempt has been made to use simulation techniques to examine the variation associated with the backcalculation estimates of several key parameters of HIV/AIDS. As already mentioned in the previous chapters the backcalculation methodology has certain uncertainties associated it. Through the simulation study, an attempt has been made to quantify the extent of uncertainties due to the variation in the incubation period distributions and infection curves. Several incubation period distributions and infection curves have been used in the simulation study, which were described in the previous chapters and the results are reported with variation associated with some key parameters of the backcalculation estimates of HIV/AIDS.