Prediction on Diesel Price in China with an Exponential Smoothing Method

Abstract

This paper starts from the changes of diesel price in China, and then makes the seasonal adjustment and trend decomposition based on the diesel prices time series data from December 2009 to January 2013 to predict the price of diesel by an exponential smoothing method. The results show that the diesel price (10 #) in China still has the rising trend and the predicted diesel (10 #) prices will reach a maximum of 10,161.84 Yuan/ton in May 2014 according to a multiplicative model. The accurately predicted diesel prices can serve to the strategy development in the related industries.