Quantifying the roles of human error and his/her state-of-health: use of the double-exponential-probability-distribution-function

Abstract

The probabilistic predictive modelling (PPM) approach in human-in-the-loop (HITL) related aerospace problems enables one to predict, quantify, assure and even specify the probability of the outcome of an aerospace mission or a situation when the performance of a never-perfect human, never-100%-reliable instrumentation (equipment), never absolutely predictable response of the object of control (aero or spacecraft), uncertain and often harsh environment, as well as the interaction (interfaces) of these uncertainties, contribute jointly to the likelihood of such an outcome. The objective of this paper is to generate thinking on how to advance the state-of-the-art in today's aerospace human psychology and particularly, on how to quantify, by both modelling and experimentation, the HITL related effort when the HF and equipment/instrumentation performance contribute jointly to the outcome (success and safety) of an aerospace mission or an extraordinary situation.