Analysis of the Effect of Climate Change on Flood Flows of Kemer Ağva River, Antalya

Abstract

The environment and atmosphere are largely polluted due to increased urbanization, especially greenhouse gases from industrial and residential areas, and the trend of warming air on a global scale is increasing. In the event that global climate change persists for many years, it is expected that there may be significant increases in the severity, frequency and activity of hydrological natural disasters such as floods caused by these events, as well as extreme weather events. In recent years, Turkey has seen an increase in summer temperatures caused by climate change, a decrease in winter precipitation, and sudden and heavy rains and flood. Especially in the Western Mediterranean basin, heavy rainfall and flood events have started to be seen frequently due to climatic changes. In this study, current flood flow rates in Antalya Kemer Agva Stream and flood flow rates of 2050, 2075 and 2100 projections of HadGEM2-ES, MPI-ESM-MR and CNRM CM 5.1 climate models outputs were determined according to RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. With this study, it has been revealed that the flood flows in the Kemer Agva basin will increase in the period until 2050 compared to the current situation, and will decrease in the periods of 2075 and 2100.