Scenario Probabilistic Load Flow based on FCM and Copula Method and its Application in Reactive Power Optimization

Abstract

To accurately describe the complex and variable dependence between the power output of wind farms and photovoltaics, a scenario probabilistic load flow calculation method based on Fuzzy C Means clustering (FCM) and copula function method is proposed in this paper. The output data is divided into several scenarios based on the FCM method with optimal parameters determined by the Density-Based Index (DBI). Then, the optimal copula type and parameters of every scenario are determined. Finally, the data simulation of every scenario is respectively conducted. Through the progress of detailed treatment, the precise probabilistic load flow can be improved. Taking the measured output of wind farms and photovoltaic power plants in America as examples, some simulations are conducted in the IEEE 30 node system. The simulation results validate the effectiveness and practical application value of the new scenario probabilistic load flow model.