Application of bootstrap technique in power system risk assessment

Abstract

This paper presents the risk assessment of power system that takes into account the system failure indices and uncertainty of unavailable load variations estimated by using the bootstrap technique. The risk of the system is measured by using the expected energy not supplied (EENS) index as well as the probability of load curtailment (PLC). The bootstrap technique is a tool which provides simplest way to perform risk assessment of a power system. Furthermore, it also requires very little assumptions to carry-out the risk analysis and it is imperative for a small size of available information. The application of bootstrap technique is important to assess the risk indices at every level of system uncertainty. The IEEE 24-bus Reliability Test System (RTS) is used as a case study in the analysis of system risk severity based EENS and PLC. Comparative studies have been made on the risk assessment of the power system determined by using the bootstrap technique and fuzzy set.