Measuring the Effects of Oil Prices on China's Economy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive Approach

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to investigate the impacts of oil prices on the Chinese economy. To this end, we rely on the factor-augmented vector autoregressive methodology, which allows us to evaluate the response of various macroeconomic variables to an oil price shock. Our results suggest that an oil price shock leads to: (i) a contemporaneous increase in consumer and producer price indexes, inducing a rise in interest rates; (ii) a delayed negative impact on GDP, investment and consumption; and (iii) a postponed increase in coal and power prices. Copyright 2009 The Authors. Journal compilation 2009 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd