Chance and Causation

Abstract

Causality and objective probability are often linked. Some philosophers have tried to characterize objectively chancy setups as incomplete, partial causes of the various possible outcomes the setup may yield. Other philosophers have proposed probabilistic theories of causation, defining a cause c for an effect e as a factor whose presence raises the objective probability of e. Neither of these links is, overall, defensible. Nonetheless, it is clear that there is some link between causation and probability, as is shown with a simple vignette. Analyzing the vignette shows that one should link causation with subjective probability. It is proposed that the strongest general principle that links causation and probability is a Cause-Probability Principle (CPP), which says (roughly) that when an agent learns that a cause c for an effect e has been introduced or put into action, then her subjective probability for the occurrence of e should be at least as high as it was beforehand.