More Than Macro Stability

Abstract

For economic growth to accelerate, as it did in Spain in the decade after 1950, requires more than just increased political stability. This chapter documents the drastic turnaround in economic policymaking that took place, from an autarkic and statist orientation to a more open and market-friendly one. It also provides a counterfactual exercise to help us gauge the impact of economic reforms. The analysis makes clear two important conclusions. First and foremost, the growth dividend from improving economic policies in Spain was large. The most impactful reforms were those that implied removing excesses that were causing large distortions, such as the misalignment in the exchange rate. The second conclusion is that this improved performance was the result of a decade-long reform process. The results from the counterfactual exercise suggest that the early reforms undertaken before 1959 played almost as much of a role as the 1959 Plan did in stoking growth. This finding is in contrast with most of the literature which, with few exceptions, has focused perhaps too much on the importance of the 1959 Stabilization Plan. This finding also raises important questions why reforms were undertaken and puts in doubt the existing mainstream view that a desperate economic situation had prompted the adoption of the 1959 Stabilization Plan.