The Future of Official Statistics

Abstract

Official statistics are a pure public good and a key element of our national data infrastructure. They support our well-being by informing a vast set of public and private decisions. Yet, today they stand at a crossroads in the United States. With new technologies, today’s official statistics could be more relevant, interoperable, granular, and timely. Recent experience during the pandemic clarifies the need for improvement. The agencies could tap the new wealth of non-survey data to accomplish these goals without increasing burdens on survey respondents. They could operate more in sync with each other (to facilitate combining and sharing data) and more independently from politics (to reinforce public trust in their integrity). They could be better protected from defunding and requirements to combine operations with non-statistical agencies. These changes are possible, but not without effort by the statistical system’s stakeholders. The agencies cannot do it alone. The alternative, I fear, is a downward spiral in official statistics. Current funding neglect and erosion of independence threaten to reduce public trust and data quality. Less reliable products would then lead to further cuts and lower response rates, and suppress quality further. Hence the spiral. To secure a promising future for official statistics and avoid the death spiral, the statistical system’s stakeholders must actively advocate changes that include data-sharing legislation, flexible and dependable funding, adopting common data schema, and a modernized, more coordinated statistical system. The statistical and data science communities—including you—have an important role to play in choosing the path ahead.