Financial Risk Assessment Model Based on Stochastic Forest and Decision Tree Hybrid Algorithm

Peipei Pan
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Abstract

The random forest model is a classification model whose underlying meta-classifier is the decision tree of the CART algorithm. The random forest model adopts sampling and putting back, that is, each training set is constructed based on the Bagging method and a new training set is randomly selected without additional pruning. In this paper, a financial risk assessment model based on the random forest is proposed. Firstly, six types of variables are set according to the characteristics of samples, and the outliers are eliminated by using the box graph model. After processing, the samples are modeled and tested by the cross verification method. The model adopts 600 decision trees, and the split node is 4. After calculation, the model precision is 82.27%, the recall rate is 83.55%, and the F1 value is 0.8196, which has good prediction accuracy. By comparing the accuracy of the random forest model with KNN and SVM models, it was found that the accuracy of the random forest model was 9.56% and 3.36% higher than the other two models respectively, which was obviously due to KNN and SVM in the accuracy of processing high-dimension big data samples.
基于随机森林与决策树混合算法的金融风险评估模型
随机森林模型是一种分类模型,其底层元分类器是CART算法的决策树。随机森林模型采用抽样和放回的方法,即每个训练集都是基于Bagging方法构造的,随机选择一个新的训练集,不进行额外的修剪。本文提出了一种基于随机森林的金融风险评估模型。首先,根据样本的特征设置6类变量,利用箱形图模型剔除离群值;处理后的样品通过交叉验证方法进行建模和测试。模型采用600棵决策树,分割节点为4。经计算,模型精度为82.27%,召回率为83.55%,F1值为0.8196,具有较好的预测精度。通过将随机森林模型与KNN和SVM模型的准确率进行比较,发现随机森林模型的准确率分别比另外两种模型高9.56%和3.36%,这显然是由于KNN和SVM在处理高维大数据样本的准确率上有所提高。
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