Validation of Decision Tree Methods in Predictive Analysis of Airborne Icing Incidents

Abstract

T HE National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) has focused on icing since 1970, and “airframe icing has been on the NTSB’s Most Wanted list of safety improvements from 1997 to 2011” [1]. This analysis revealed 819 deaths in the 19-year studywhile highlighting “some very notableU.S. icing accidents, includingAir Florida Flight 90,U.S.Air Flight 405, Comair Flight 3272, andAmerican Eagle Flight 4184.”The Federal AviationAdministration (FAA) has struggled to address this issue: Since 1994, the FAAhas issuedmore than 200 airworthiness directives to address icing safety issues onmore than 50 specific types of aircraft. These orders cover safety issues ranging from crewoperating procedures in the icing environment to direct design changes. There have been changes to airplane flightmanuals and other operating documents to address icing safety, and bulletins and alerts emphasizing icing safety issues have been issued to operators. In addition to many short-term initiatives, the FAA has issued two final rules, and two proposed rules are in progress to address NTSB recommendations [2]. Although the data for 1982 to 2000 from [3] indicate an overall decline in icing accidents, there has been no improvement in the commuter segment, where such accidents continue unabated. Despite advances in equipment and training, improved weather services, and new aviation regulations targeted at airframe icing, this issue has been a concern of the NTSB throughout the years.