Anew assumption in generation mechanism of emergency plan under the perspective of “scenario-task”

Abstract

This article puts forward an idea of generating emergency plan under the “scenario-task” perspective and clarifies the main content and key technology roadmap of the research starting from problems existing in the domestic emergency plan. Based on the summary of typical emergencies evolution, by means of making the research on the classification and grading of emergency scenarios and the constitution of scenario elements, the network analytical model of emergency scenario evolution is hierarchically formed. This model is made up of incentive layer, rule layer and events chain layer. At the same time, with national strategic task, regional coordination tasks and basic respond set up in the vertical direction, prevention, monitoring, response and recovery in the horizontal direction, we establish an emergency task structural matrix facing up to different kinds of scenario. It is discussed about the matching relationship between different levels of tasks and dynamic effect on the scenario evolution by the task performance. Then we seek the interaction mechanism between scenario evolution and task changes by analyzing the variable transformation between scenario, scenario element and task. The basic logic of emergency plan generation is revealed and the critical path of its dynamically generation is proposed from the aspects of emergency plan structural system, scenario and case database, task responsibility of emergency organization, emergency practice and plan evaluation.