Probabilistic reduction of generation in adequacy calculation

Abstract

Problems of a generation system reduction in calculations of a power system (PS) adequacy are considered. The attention is mostly focused on mathematical models, based on the binominal and Poisson distributions, Poisson failure flows and characteristic functions of random variables. The reduction procedures result in the disturbance of integer number of units in operation. It was shown that it is appropriate to carry out rounding-off and following correction of probabilistic indices using the criteria of capacities at hand and expected values of generation tripped equality. As a result of models comparison the preference is made for models, based on the binominal and Poisson distributions. In the case of huge PS units diversification the combined distribution is assumed to be used, emphasizing units with the highest capacity and equivalent the rest, in order to perform adjusted calculations by means of computer.